现在是推翻中共政权的时候了（Englisch）
上月底，刚刚在今年3月卸任的中共前总理李克强意外去世，引发了有关中共党魁习近平在强化权力掌控并意图铲除对手的怀疑。
而在2022年10月召开的中共第二十次代表大会（二十大）上，前党魁胡锦涛被当众强行架走驱离会场，前外交部长秦刚、前国防部长李尚福、（火箭军的）多位将军和众多较低级别的官员被接连免职，这表明习近平正在加强对中共全党的控制。短期内他可能会得逞，然而从长远来看是绝对行不通的。
从本质来看，中共存在三大弱点
首先，马列主义意识形态的失败导致中共执政合法性的缺失。中共对作为舶来品西方意识形态的马列主义强烈依赖，这就意味着，从根本上说，基于毛泽东思想的中共是中国的非法政体。这有可能造成共产主义中国的合法性危机，导致其被推翻或演变为符合中国历史政治文化（皇权政治）的新儒家政体。作为西方知识分子思想的产物，中共甚至缺乏清朝（1644—1911年）的合法性，清朝的皇室属于外来的满族而非汉族，然而他们的统治符合中国的王朝意识形态，而这正是中国永久意识形态的根源。因此，尽管清朝是一个外来政权，动乱频仍，外国干涉不断，但它仍能保持政权稳固。
其次，中共之所以不堪一击，是因为其令人憎恶和鄙视的腐朽领导层，以及习近平加速推行的暴政。中共拥有令人憎恶的统治阶层，他们迫使中国人民忍受了几十年的暴政。七十年的暴政和对中国人民的战争导致数千万人被中共杀害，中国人民逐渐认识到，中共政权是为了自身利益而不是为了人民福祉。
2023年3月27日，首都华盛顿，来自新泽西州的共和党籍联邦众议员克里斯托弗·史密斯（Christopher H. Smith）在有关《2023年停止活摘器官法案》（HR1154）的立法事务会议上发言。（美国众议院／新唐人电视台截图）
第三，由于中国公民社会的崛起，中共作为执政党的合法性受到威胁。公民社会是独立于政府之外的个人和组织的综合体，他们促进公民的利益，反映公民的意愿。他们建立社会信任和共同价值观，使公民社会网络密集的国家更容易实现民主。公民社会的典型代表有教会、童子军和宫庙等社会团体。中国公民社会为中国的治理提供了另一种更合法的意识形态。
中国社会生活的发展（包括众多的社交媒体、宗教和文化生活的发展）为国家的意识形态和政治治理提供了基础。中共的统治将受到削弱，以至于讽喻式文化交流的发展，即通过引用儒家和道家信仰、文学和哲学间接批评中共，有可能出现一个可行的替代方案——得到精英和大众的支持。
上述每种途径都提供了成功推翻中共的可能性。我们应该对每种途径进行评估和比较，每种途径的要素都可能相互补充、相互协调，从而产生单靠一种途径无法实现的结果。在这个过程中，有三个要点是相关的。
首先，从战略上讲，挫败中共野心并维护美国国家安全利益的最有效战略，就是以消灭中共为目标，然而这也给美国带来了全新的挑战。中共的合法性危机已经迫在眉睫。中共的执政努力已经失败了。对于这一点，中国人民知道，中共明白，习近平也看到了事实。
其次，通过准确识别中共的弱点，可以制定有助于其垮台的政策，让美国及其盟国为其灭亡做好充分准备。了解并运用历史教训，例如清王朝为何能在重大危机中幸存下来，就能更广泛地理解中共的非法性本质。
与此同时，美国必须明白自身在导致中共下台方面的局限性。意识形态的合法性危机、习近平日益偏执的统治、党内领导层之间不断强化的恐惧感，以及中国公民社会的发展，都为中共垮台提供了重要途径。因此，虽然中共的倒台不可能是美国可以强迫其俯首就范的自然结果，然而对于这个问题的研究有助于确定推动中共倒台的政策，以产生尽可能有利于美国利益的结果。
第三，在政治战争领域，正如中共政权以美国及其主要盟友为打击目标一样，通过否认中共的合法性并公开规划后共产主义中国来打击中共，也是美国的适当回应。此举向习近平和中共政权领导阶层表明，美国将有决心在政治战领域全面迎战。这也表明美国乐见中共政权垮台。反过来，由于中国人民数十年来遭受的虐待以及目前浮出水面的经济和社会问题，这又迫使中共面临重重压力。
从本质上讲，锁定中共作为打击目标对于美国而言极其重要，此举提供了在不诉诸热战的情况下推翻中共政权的可能性。关于中共灭亡的形式、速度及其机制，公众应该有持续不断的讨论，广开言路。然而，这需要美国人民从拜登政府身上看到必需的专注和决心，而这些目前尚不明朗。
现在是努力推翻中共极权统治的时候了。如果拜登政府不愿意推进这个目标，那么就需要广大海外华人、西方盟友和世界各地的有识之士加强共识，协调行动，共同推进这个目标。
作者简介：布拉德利·塞耶尔（Bradley A. Thayer）是总部位于华盛顿特区的智库美国安全政策中心（Center for Security Policy）的中国政策部主任，也是《理解中共威胁》（Understanding the China Threat，2022年）一书的合著者。
原文：Now Is the Time to Overthrow the Chinese Regime刊登于英文《大纪元时报》。
Now Is the Time to Overthrow the Chinese Regime
The unexpected death of former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang raises questions regarding Xi Jinping’s hold on power and his willingness to eliminate rivals.
The removal of former leader Hu Jintao from the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, and the removal of the foreign minister, defense minister, many generals, and many lesser officials suggests that Mr. Xi is tightening his hold on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He may be successful in the short run. But it will not work in the long term.
There are three major vulnerabilities of the CCP
First, the lack of its legitimacy is due to the failed ideology of Marxism-Leninism. The dependence upon an imported Western ideology, Marxism-Leninism, means that, at root, the CCP’s ideology of Maoism is an illegitimate polity for China. This has the potential to cause a legitimation crisis in communist China that causes its overthrow or evolution into a neo-Confucian polity in accord with China’s historical political culture that defined imperial China. As a product of Western intellectual thought, the CCP lacks even the legitimacy of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), whose leaders were foreign, Manchu rather than Han, but who ruled in accord with China’s dynastic ideology, what is at the root of China’s permanent ideology. Thus, the Qing Dynasty was able to maintain power despite its foreign nature, prodigious unrest, and foreign interventions.
Second, the CCP is vulnerable because of its abhorrent and contemptible leadership and the accelerated misrule of Mr. Xi. It possesses odious rulers who have forced China to endure decades of misrule. Seventy years of misrule and wars against the Chinese people have led to scores of millions killed by the CCP and the recognition by the Chinese people that the regime rules for itself, not for the people.
Rep. Christopher H. Smith (R-N.J.) speaks during the meeting for legislative business regarding HR 1154–Stop Forced Organ Harvesting Act of 2023 in Washington, on Mar. 27, 2023, in a still from a video. (The House of Representatives/Screenshot via NTD)
Third, the Party’s legitimacy is at risk because of the emerging Chinese civil society. Civil society is a composite of individuals and organizations independent of the government that advance the interests of citizens and reflect their will. They build social trust and shared values, making states with dense civil society networks more prone to being democratic. Classic examples of civil society are churches, Boy Scouts, and social groups like the Shriners. Chinese civil society offers an alternative and more legitimate ideology for China’s governance.
Developing social, including social media, religious, and cultural life in China provides a foundation for a different ideological and political governance for the country. The CCP’s rule would be undermined to the point where a viable alternative—with elite and mass support—is possible through the growth of allegorical cultural associations that criticize the CCP obliquely through references to Confucian and Daoist beliefs, literature, and philosophy.
Each of these avenues offers the possibility of successfully overthrowing the CCP. Each should be evaluated and compared, and elements of each might be complementary and harmonized to produce an outcome one avenue alone could not accomplish. Three major points are relevant.
First, strategically, the most effective strategy to defeat the CCP’s ambition and preserve U.S. national security interests is to target its demise—but that also presents new challenges for the United States. The CCP’s legitimation crisis is at hand. It failed. The Chinese people know it, the Party does, and Mr. Xi sees the truth.
Second, by accurately identifying the CCP’s weaknesses, policies may be developed that assist its fall and permit the United States and its allies to prepare for its demise. Understanding and applying the lessons of history, for example, why the Qing Dynasty survived its major crises, permits a broader understanding of the illegitimacy of the CCP.
At the same time, the United States must understand U.S. limitations in causing the CCP’s fall from power. The ideological crisis of legitimacy, the increasingly paranoid rule of Mr. Xi, the ever-tightening circles of fear among the Party leadership, and the development of Chinese civil society provide important paths to the fall of the CCP. Accordingly, while the fall of the CCP is not likely to be the result of actions that the United States can compel, a study of this issue contributes to the identification of policies to advance them to produce an outcome as favorable as possible to U.S. interests.
Third, in the realm of political warfare, just as the Chinese regime targets the United States and its key allies, targeting the CCP by rejecting its legitimacy and openly planning for a post-communist China is an appropriate U.S. response. It demonstrates a resolve to Mr. Xi and the leadership of the Chinese regime that the United States will fight in the realm of political warfare. It also signals that it is determined to cause its downfall. In turn, this places the Party under pressure due to decades of abuse of the Chinese people and economic and social problems now surfacing.
In essence, targeting the CCP is supremely important for the United States and offers the possibility of the Chinese regime’s overthrow without resorting to kinetic war. There should be vocal, continuous discussion regarding the form of the CCP’s demise, its rapidity, and its mechanics. However, it will require a focus and determination that the American people have not seen from the Biden administration.
Now is the time to work to overthrow the Chinese regime. If the Biden administration will not advance this objective, then it falls to the Chinese diaspora, allies, and people of goodwill around the world to advance that end.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Bradley A. Thayer
Author
Bradley A. Thayer is co-author of “Understanding the China Threat” and director of China Policy at the Center for Security Policy.
Thank you, Epoch Times.感謝大紀元
點擊鏈接閱讀原文：https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/23/1/21/n13912117.htmJapanese：https://jp.minghui.org/2023/01/23/89043.htmlEnglish：https://www.theepochtimes.com/falun-gong-founder-li-hongzhi-publishes-why-do-human-beings-exist_5000952.htmlDeutsch：https://www.epochtimes.de/falun-gong/gruender-von-falun-gong-li-hongzhi-veroeffentlicht-warum-gibt-es-die-menschheit-a4126954.html
點擊鏈接閱讀原文：https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/4/17/n13975246.htmJapanese：https://jp.minghui.org/2023/04/18/90685.htmlEnglish：https://www.theepochtimes.com/falun-gong-founder-mr-li-hongzhi-publishes-why-creator-seeks-to-save-all-life_5201909.htmlDeutsch：https://www.ganjing.com/zh-CN/video/1fqc9slbmch3uJZOOQXxrW9Ch1ab1c
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